Russia-India
Relations: A Strategic Shift in Global Geopolitics
S Deman*
Abstract
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| A Love Story |
Introduction
A seismic shift is underway in global geopolitics.
India has reportedly accepted a substantial and unprecedented offer from
Russia—an action that could potentially recalibrate the balance of power in
Asia and beyond. As Western powers seek to contain Russia following the Ukraine
conflict, India's decision to deepen its strategic ties with Moscow marks a
significant departure from its previously cautious diplomacy. This paper
explores the motivations, content, and consequences of this move, as well as
its implications for the global order.
The Nature of the Agreement
1. Defense and Technology
Transfer
At the heart of the agreement is an expansive
defense cooperation framework, reportedly involving advanced military
technologies. Speculation suggests Russia has offered India not only weapons
platforms but also full-scale technology transfers. These could include
next-generation combat aircraft, hypersonic missiles, air defense systems, and
submarine components. This aligns with India's "Atmanirbhar Bharat"
(self-reliant India) initiative, enhancing domestic production capacity and
reducing long-term reliance on foreign imports.
2. Energy Security
Another major component is a long-term energy
partnership involving preferential pricing on Russian oil and gas. Amidst
global energy volatility, access to reliable and affordable energy is crucial
for sustaining India's economic growth. The deal may also include alternative
financial mechanisms such as rupee-ruble trade arrangements, insulating both
countries from Western sanctions.
3. Diplomatic and Strategic
Alignment
India's alignment with Russia also signals closer
diplomatic cooperation in global forums such as the United Nations and BRICS.
This is seen as an attempt to challenge Western hegemony and promote a more
multipolar world order.
Historical Context: The
India-Russia Partnership
India-Russia relations are built on a foundation of
trust, strategic alignment, and historical goodwill dating back to the Cold War
era. During a time when India struggled to secure advanced defense technology from
Western nations, the Soviet Union emerged as a reliable partner, supplying
critical equipment and diplomatic support—most notably through the 1971
Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation.
The co-development of the BrahMos supersonic cruise
missile exemplifies the success of this partnership. Even today, over 60% of
India’s defense equipment originates from Russia or the former Soviet Union,
creating a lasting interdependence. This historical cooperation sets the stage
for the present deepening of ties.
Strategic Timing and Motivations
1. Assertion of Strategic
Autonomy
Western pressure to distance itself from Moscow has
paradoxically strengthened India’s resolve to pursue a multi-vector foreign
policy. By embracing a deeper relationship with Russia, India is asserting its
strategic independence.
2. Security Concerns: The China
Factor
The ongoing border tensions with China,
particularly in the Himalayas, necessitate rapid military modernization.
Russia, unlike Western suppliers, may be more willing to offer cutting-edge
technologies without bureaucratic or geopolitical constraints.
3. BRICS and the Multipolar Vision
India's growing role within an expanded BRICS
provides a conducive platform for deeper cooperation with Russia. The two
nations, alongside others, aim to reduce dependency on Western institutions by
promoting trade in national currencies and strengthening the New Development
Bank.
Global Reactions
1. Western Powers
The United States and NATO allies are likely to
perceive this development as a threat to their Indo-Pacific strategy, where
India plays a pivotal role in countering China. Potential repercussions could
include diplomatic pressure, sanctions under CAATSA (Countering America's
Adversaries Through Sanctions Act), and revaluations of defense and technology
partnerships.
The European Union may echo these concerns, raising
the possibility of trade frictions and political misalignment.
2. China
While China may welcome a disruption in U.S.-led
alliances, it may also be wary of Russian military technology empowering a
regional rival. This could strain the China-Russia dynamic.
3. Middle East and Global South
Countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia may view the
India-Russia axis as a stabilizing force and a potential boost to regional
initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
Implications for India: Benefits
and Risks
Potential Benefits
- Strategic
Autonomy:
Reinforces India's independent foreign policy stance.
- Energy
Security:
Access to discounted Russian energy helps curb inflation and reduce trade
deficits.
- Defense
Modernization:
Enhances indigenous capabilities and military deterrence.
- Economic
Growth:
Boosts industrial competitiveness under initiatives like “Make in India.”
Key Risks
- Sanctions
and Diplomatic Fallout: Potential U.S. and EU sanctions could affect
investment and critical technologies.
- Strain
on Key Alliances:
Partnerships within the Quad (US, Japan, Australia, and India) may suffer.
- Domestic
Political Challenges: Aligning closely with a globally criticized
regime could stir internal debate.
Future Outlook: What Happens
Next?
India’s acceptance of Russia's strategic offer is
only the beginning. The global response—especially from Washington—will heavily
influence the direction of this new alignment. If met with harsh retaliation,
India may pivot further toward non-Western partners and reinforce BRICS-related
initiatives such as de-dollarization, national currency trade, and governance
reform.
Expect increased India-Russia military
collaboration, joint research, and potentially greater intelligence sharing.
This could further entrench the partnership and act as a catalyst for a broader
shift in the global power structure—from a unipolar to a multipolar order.
Conclusion
India’s decision to deepen its partnership with
Russia represents a calculated gamble—balancing geopolitical risks with
strategic imperatives. It reflects a desire to maintain autonomy, secure
national interests, and reshape its global role amidst a turbulent
international environment. Whether this will usher in a new global order or
provoke new conflicts remains to be seen. What is certain is that the
India-Russia alliance will play a pivotal role in shaping the contours of
21st-century geopolitics.
* Director,
Centre fir Econ & Finance, London
References
1.
Ministry of External Affairs,
Government of India. India-Russia Relations. New Delhi: MEA, 2024. https://mea.gov.in/india-russia.htm
2.
Stratfor. "Russia’s
Strategic Partnerships in Asia." RAND Corporation, 2023.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1621-1.html
3.
Krishnan, Murali. "India’s
Energy Ties with Russia Deepen Despite Western Pressure." The Hindu,
March 15, 2024. https://www.thehindu.com
4.
Mukherjee, Arpita. "India to
Buy Russian Oil in Rupees to Sidestep Sanctions." Reuters, April
10, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-russian-oil-rupees
5.
Saran, Shyam. India’s Quest
for Strategic Autonomy: A Diplomatic Balancing Act. New Delhi: Carnegie
India, 2023. https://carnegieindia.org/2023/11/20/indias-strategic-autonomy
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