Friday 14 April 2023

THE IMF PREDICTION OF WORLDWIDE GDP GROWTH: RICH V POOR

Bachhan's Fair Lady and the IMF Deputy Chief Geeta Gopinath Predictions of GDP Growth  


WHAT IT IS BEING ON THE TOP PF THE GDP TABLE MEAN FOR COMMON MAN?

Recently, the IMF has published a GDP forecast in which India appears to be on the top in growth. However, the IMF does not have its own data bank but relies on what it is being fed by the respective governments. The accuracies of the data are not uniform across the countries and given the structure of the IMF it’s forecast could not be construed as objective. For example, at the Indian Econometric Society Annual Conference held in 2010, Arvind Panagaria based on the IMF forecasted for India’s GDP growth at 11%, asserted that it was sustainable! He also proudly claimed that if the GDP was adjusted with PPP India’s growth had already superseded China. Although Arvind Panagaria received Padma Bhooshan for eulogizing Congress government’s glorious achievements in bearing China (a China obsession), dream was shattered as India’s GDP growth feel to 4% at the end of UPA II led by Dr Man Mohan Singh which met a disastrous outcome in 2014 Parliamentary elections as it faced unemployment, inflation and corruption on which BJP led by Modi was voted to power.

People of India were given a hope that their plight will change under the new regime. However, rhetoric of China obsession was not going anywhere. The base year was brought forward from 2004-2055- 2011-2012 which alone had inflated GDP growth by 2.2%. GDP was now calculated at market price instead of factor cost which may have also impacted increase in GDP growth. GDP growth was revised from 4.7% under UPA II to 8% under the new regime. Initially, GDP grew @ 7.3% and it is worth mentioning that Dr MM Singh’s Govt. did not have the benefit of low crude prices which Modi Govt. did. However, in spite of India’s Finance Minister, late Arun Jaitely’s claims of sound macroeconomic indicator, GDP growth started declining and just before the Covid 19 pandemics lockdown in March it dropped to 4.7%. During the Covid period April 2020-April 2022 it dropped by 24.4% although independent estimates worked out by Prof Arun Kumar puts the figure even higherup!

Following the IMF forecast, BJP government sources are thrilled and both the IMF and Indian government are feeling trigger happy and marketing the Indian model of development to rest of the world. In the IMF GDP growth table India’s real comparator appears to be China in terms of size of population, started independent development about the same time and somewhat similar circumstances and level of development. In fact, a study published by Subramaniam Sway published in Economic Development Cultural Change in 1960 puts India above China in terms of level of development. However, important question is whether GDP growth really matters? Answer is no! First, India’s GDP growth has mainly been in the sectors of services (financial & non-financial), and capital intensive luxury goods which created an uneven demand pattern resulting in two India: Rich & Poor with rich inelastic demand and poor with elastic demand, perhaps stochastic demand pattern).

In fact, even during the Covid lockdown, financial sector grew in leaps and bounds. Second, this lopsided growth has not generated employment to meet Modi's claim of 20 million jobs every year. Third, in working out the growth, the informal sector has been unaccounted as the data is unavailable. Fourth, if the growth rate is adjusted for shift in base year and with inflation, one wonders where India’s GDP stands! In fact, in spite of tall claims both by the Congress and BJP governments trickledown mechanism has not changed the plight of people of India. In contrast, there is no doubt, China's 5,3% growth is slightly less than India, but China had a Zero Covid policy in force and has been lifted only recently. Given China's economy's base about 5 times, even 5,3% is a great achievement as it would add about 954 billion in the economy compared to only 184 billion to Indian economy growing at 6.8%. Moreover, since the 2009 worldwide economic crisis, China's growth strategy has changed in view of growing unemployment, economic inequalities in special economic zones, and poverty, it consciously set a lower target of GDP growth to address the internal problems and impact of global crisis. I should admit that both China and India were not impacted a great deal by 2009 crisis. Former RBI Chairman, YV Reddy wisely decided not to increase the interest rate and announced 55 billion non-cash stimulus package combined with India’s the huge public sector it absorbed the economic shock and China being a centralized planned economy. 

In contrast, initially China allocated US $450 billion, which increased to US $1.2 trillion and adopted a three stage development strategy. In first stage, it invested in infrastructure to generate employment and income. At second stage, it invested in urban and housing development, and at third stage, it invested in manufacturing and other sectors. Thus, China has followed a consumption led growth rather than investment led growth in India relying on supply side economics. In the absence of rise in income demand can’t be stimulated. A conservative estimate is that China has taken off nearly 650 million people out of poverty in the last 10 years, which is a great achievement. Hence, rather than glorifying IMF predictions numbers, focus must be on the plight of common man. As Prof AK Sen pointed out, India's GDP growth has been jobless. Unfortunately, right wing economists consciously and left unconsciously caught into the neoclassical Cobb-Web and India is heading toward the Hindu Rate of Growth.

Suresh Deman, BSC, MA (India), MA, DBA, M. Phil, Ph.D. (US, UK, Japan) 

Honorary Director & UNEP/UNCTAD Consultant 
Centre for Economics & Finance & Visiting Professor
PO Box 17517 
London SE9 2ZP 
Tel & Fax: 44 20 88594657 Mobile: 0044 7525857351 




  • BSC

Friday 16 September 2022

SOUND OF MUSIC IS SCRIPTED AT THE SONY TV

SONY TV SUPERSTAR 2 SIMGER SCRIPTED PROGRAMS!

An old proverbial saying goes as follows, "Poetry is music in words and the Music is poetry is songs". Music, theatre and cinema have played an important role in national awakening and  social transformation. Now, even medical science has acknowledged the importance of creative and therapeutic art formations. In fact, creation plays an important part in processing emotions and helps in improving emotional health encompassing anger, low mood and bipolar anxiety. In fact, psychiatrists have recognised that medical treatment alone would not work in management of mental health. Creative art techniques via music, painting, etc., should be encompassing into talking and counselling.  Unfortunately, since the 1990s with globalisation even music and cinema have also become highly corporatized.     

In 1990s in India only a couple of TV channels were cooperating entertainment programs but today hundreds of entertainment channels are competing in India. It appears Sony Entertainment is dominating the in operating diversified programs, Super Star Singer, Indian Idol, Dance India Dance, etc. No doubt, these programs have done a great job in searching hidden talent and have given opportunity to many like Salman Khan, Sunny Hindustani and Pawandeep who would not have made otherwise.  However, it does not mean the process of selection is completely blameless.  In fact, this author being keenly interested in music, regularly watches most of these programs and also writes about them. In fact, author had an opportunity to organise a session Progressive Literary Festival on Role of Theatre in Social Transformation and also on social economic issues which received wide coverage in media.  
Alka Yagnik, Javeed Ali, Himesh Rashmmiya 

Recently, I was concerned about the procedure adopted by Judges in choosing 6 finalists in Super Star Singer 2 competition held on SONY Pictures.  In any completion, like the Courts & Tribunals for administration justice, three judges are appointed.  An odd number is chosen to avoid collusion and break the tie and/or in case of any disagreement.  Super Star Singer started in the same spirit and grate enthusiasm with Alka Yagnik, Himesh Rashmmiaya and Javeed Ali as judges and Aditya Narain being the anchor.  Out of dozens of participants in first stage after elimination 11 were selected.       

Legends Wahida Rehman & Asha Parikh

In course of several weeks a number of celebrities have appeared as guests among them Dharmendra, Waheeda Rehman, being the best.  In due course, it turned out that the at least two of three judges along with Mr Aditya Narain started engaging in a marketing campaign for their favourite participants prejudging as they should advance to the list of finalists.  For example, Mani, Pranjal, Faiz, Saisha Gupta, Samaira who were given opportunity to give their performance twice every week and others were only once. I also noted the judges openly promoted particular participant declaring them the winner and giving them seal of “shook the world” (Duniya Hiladi).  Of course, judges are entitled to provide a feedback o improve their future performance, but to engage in a promotion campaign on compensate (socio-economic background and announcement of monetary help to some) grounds is not the function of the judges. Of course, participants with great financial difficulties could be helped but must be done anonymously as so doing so openly may destroy other deserving participants’ self-esteem.  In this regard, Soyab Ali got my attention who not only gave an excellent performance but he has also gone through extreme hardship and loss of his younger sister.  I had not heard his solo song until last week that too when I complained to the organisers about it.  In fact, Soyab Ali along with some other was not kept on equal-footing (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxIv3hn45Hk ).  

Soyab Ali 

I noted that Alka Yagnik was missing for the last few weeks and Javeed Ali, one of the best was not even seen much longer. Himesh Rashmmiaya was also off for a couple of days. However, Alka Yagnik appeared from nowhere to judge finalists and when Soyab Ali gave his excellent performance, she sarcastically commented that he not only shook  Salman Ali’s chair but her chair too. In the entire process of elimination, the bias of at least two Judges, namely Alka Yagnik and Himesh Reshammiya was so obvious that Soyab Ali got only 2 medals, the lowest number compared to the finalists. A week before the Grand Finale, it was claimed that the finalists were decided on the basis of last 4 weeks public voting and judges’ numbers although I have not seen any judge assigning numbers to anyone. It was all arbitrary! There is another problem with the process as the public voting was restricted because Soyeb Ali was asked to sing duet and that too once a week, most of the time with Chetnya with incompatible nodal quality. In contrast his competitors had two chances every week and with 2-3 different songs. Hence, competition would not appear fair as all were not kept on level playing field.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nRrFcIJnxY  

Prior to the finalists were selected, I offered to give Rs 50.00 to Soyeb Ali anonymously and asked Aditya Narian, the anchor and also sent a message to his mentor, Pawandeep, but no response was forthcoming. Usually, five finalist are selected, namely; Mani, Pranjal, Aryananda, Rituraj, Faiz, and 6th name of Saisha Gupta were added as a consolation for being a Baby Doll. Obviously, Soyeb’s elimination was a foregone conclusion, however, selection of Aryanand and Rituraj was a pleasant surprised who were the best.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMt8jys-mWs

Malika-a- Tarunum: Noorajahan 

It is commonly believed that Noorjahan's like voice appears once in 100 year however we were lucky to have such rare tonal quality voice just within 50 years which has been silenced unjustly. I wanted to hear her singing again. Certainly, she deserved a wild card entry. 

Rather than learning lessons from past mistakes on 14 September 2019 yet another unjust elimination of rare challenging voice of young Soyeb Ali who did not hesitate to take Salman Ali on. Both Salman and Soyeb come from same village of Haryana. In my opinion no one could match Salman’s tonal range except Soyab who at the age 8 has shown tremendous potential and certainly deserving of being among the top ten. Perhaps, he scared every one. However, once again Alka Yagnik chose to make premature and unfair comments as soon as he finished his song, “Today you were lost and was also go into No entry zone”. In all fairness a judge is entitled to make suggestion appreciating good parts and identify the deficiencies, if there are any, but not to ridicule the singer who was only 8 years old.

Aryananda Babu

I also had an opportunity watch the Finale too as predicted Faiz won the Trophy with £15000 prize money. It was quite shocking that Aryananda and Rituraj didn’t figured at 2nd or 3 place. It was all scripted as Himesh Reshmmiya had already offered to record Faiz earlier on and Aditya Narain erroneously claimed to have been liked by 3000 billion (3 trillion) people on U-tube which exceeds the total size of the world’s population. Clearly, being a well known music director as a judge of the Super Star 2 himself had engaged in promoting Mohemmed Faiz, clearly he had an advantage over others. Such an act on part of the judge is highly unethical and must be shocking to musical conscience.  Mr. Javeed was absence at the Finale which speaks volumes about the credibility of the competition. Aryananda

Rituraj

This didn’t happen for the first time, in another India’s voice show Anu Malik had shown highhandedness when he eliminated Krishnakali from Tripura who was ridiculed her although well-known script writer and lyricist, Javid Akhter who openly disagreed with Annu Malik and commented that her singing could not have been better yet she was eliminated.

Further, Finale deviated from the well establish practice and tradition of inviting the eliminated contestants, but on this occasion no one was invited. In course of an event of the Finale, Aditya Narain announced Alka Yagnik’s performance addressed her as the Malika- a-Tarunum and alo suggested that no one will match her level of singing for 100 years which was not only an insult to both, Noor Jahan and Lata Mangeshker and was also an irresponsible and reckless statement, but was also an act of an infantile disorder. One left with wondering how Mr N P Singh CEO of SONY Pictures could say it was the best show!!!     

TEAM UP TO BRING THEM BACK!!!

Wednesday 12 May 2021

Marx and Marxism in Modern Times

 

 Marx and Marxism in Modern Times

By V. Upadhyay

S. K. Dey Chair Professor, Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhi

May 5, 2021 marked the 203rd birth anniversary of Karl Marx, considered as “one of the greatest thinkers in human history”. Marx was born in Germany but due to his political publications and activities, he had to live in exile most of his life. He was exiled from his native country in 1849. After spending a few months in France, he settled in London with his family. In London, Marx was provided financial help by Friedrich Engels, his collaborator for his entire political career, that made it possible for Marx to do research and write. Marx died on March 14, 1883, in London.

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Marx authored many books (several with Engels) on diverse subjects of dialectics, material conception of history, class conflict, labour theory of value, surplus value, exploitation and alienation. His most influential works are The Communist Manifesto and Das Kapital. Marx was able to write and publish only the first volume of Das Kapital. Based on Marx’s copious notes, the second and third volumes were edited by Engels after Marx’s death. The main thrust of Das Kapital is to reveal the economic patterns underpinning the capitalist mode of production. The Communist Manifesto, written in 1848, provides an analysis of the internal conflicts of capitalism, focusing on the class-struggle between labour and capital. The Manifesto has become one of the most important documents influencing revolutionary movements world over.  

Marx’s one famous quote reflects his critique of his contemporary thinkers: “Philosophers have only interpreted the world in various ways. The point, however, is to change it.” Classical political economists such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo provided a historical understanding of the decline of feudalism and the emergence of bourgeoise during the period of industrial revolution in Europe. But for most of the economists in the classical political economy tradition, history stopped once the transition towards capitalism was accomplished. For Marx, even capitalism was a transitory phenomenon.

Marx contended that capitalism was prone to systemic crises and internal conflict between the bourgeoise and the proletariat. According to him, these contradictions within the system would ultimately lead to breakdown of the capitalist system and replacement of capitalism by a higher economic mode of production called socialism. A very distinctive aspect of the Marxist theory is that in addition to the examination of the existing capitalist system as such, it provides tools to understand the dynamic and historical process of the transformation of the capitalistic mode of production.

Coming to the recent times, there are various approaches to global political economy which elucidate the contemporary challenges posed by global capitalism. These approaches range from liberal mainstream approaches to Marxist approaches. The mainstream approaches have a serious drawback because of their ahistorical approach as they take the capitalist system as given and do not consider the global economic problems as an outcome of the accumulation logic of capitalism. The conventional wisdom that has been developed by the neoliberal politicians and intellectuals of the Global North about the advantages of neoliberal policies came under severe criticism after the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008. The ideology of neoliberalism posits that the only hope for prosperity for the people of the Global South lies in opening all the markets (and even the social and cultural spaces that have traditionally not been part of the market) for capital, domestic as well as foreign. The deregulation of capital in the name of free market has given birth to multiple threats in developed as well as developing countries that have not been the subject matter of mainstream economics. The failure of neoliberal capitalism and the growing economic and power imbalances in the world economy suggest that it is time for Marxist scholars to build a consensus and rethink political economy of global capitalism by paying adequate attention to new existential crises – the environmental crisis, the growing threat of nuclear war, and the threats from new dangerous technologies.

The influence of Marx’s ideas, already popular in parts of Europe in his life time, became a global force to be reckoned with by the victory of Bolsheviks in the 1917 Russian Revolution. The Russian Revolution was the first revolution in the world that established a socialist state in a country. The 1917 Revolution gave a huge impetus and encouragement to anti-colonial movements across Asia, Africa and Latin America. It gave hope to millions of people engaged in national liberation struggles across the globe that it was possible to score victory against the capitalist imperialist forces and to establish a social system in their societies based on the principles of freedom, equality and justice.

The collapse of socialism in Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the doctrinal changes in China after Mao and revival of capitalism in many other erstwhile socialist countries clearly point to the fact that linear progression towards socialism has not proven to be possible. The Communist Party of China (CPC) makes abundant use of Marxist phraseology. The CPC’s official ideology – Socialism with Chinese characteristics – is claimed to be based on the Marxian philosophical concept of ‘dialectical materialism’. It, however, needs to be understood here that ‘class struggle’ is the essence of Marxian politics. The socialist rhetoric used by the communist leadership, however, does not point to any class struggle being waged in the Chinese society. In case of Russia, even this debate – capitalism vs socialism – does not exist. All this, however, does not automatically lead to the conclusion that socialist experiments in many countries have all been worthless and without any positive contribution.

The most significant contribution made by Soviet Union to world history is that it saved the world from Hitler. During World War II, Soviet Union suffered the most destruction and casualties at the hand of the Nazi war machine. The Soviet Red Army played the most important role in the defeat of Germany. Although in the public memory it may not be acknowledged now in the West, the fact remains that the Soviets played the most crucial role in ending the menace of fascism in Europe.

For about four decades during the Cold War era, Soviet Union was able to provide a counterbalance to the U.S. and other Western powers. Just four years after the American bomb, Soviet Union succeeded in in producing its own nuclear weapon. This fast catching up in the area of mass destruction technology was the primary reason why America was not able to use nuclear weapons in its wars in Korea, Vietnam and other places during the Cold War period. Even after the collapse of Soviet Union and despite the devastating experience of the nineties, Russia – with a much smaller population base compared to the U.S. and Europe – continues even today to match the military might of the U.S. With seven decades long continuity in maintaining military balance with the West, Soviet Union’s (and now Russia’s) historic role in preventing the Third World War so far should be considered nothing but phenomenal.

Socialist planning played a very important role in the economic and political history of many countries during the last century. Detailed theoretical and practical constructs of socialist planning were first designed and developed and put in practice in Soviet Union during 1920s and 1930s. These ideas spread not only to socialist countries in Eastern Europe and China where there were repeated attempts to replicate them but also influenced economic institutions and economic policies in countries following capitalist path or mixed economy models (such as the U.S., Japan, France and India).

It is true that most countries who experimented with these ideas have now abandoned them. But the developing crisis of capitalism in many parts of the world and the environmental crisis affecting the whole world may create conditions that necessitate the adoption of socialist planning ideas.

The phase of unipolarity has ended and a new world order characterised as multipolar is emerging. It represents a fundamental break from the last several centuries’ long history of European domination. In the global transformation that is underway, the role of China has been the most crucial. China’s rise in recent years as a major power is the main causal factor behind the global transformation towards multipolarity. A multipolar world provides some space for independent action to other nation states. And this is true even for major powers such as India and Turkey.

The most significant aspect of the geopolitical reality today is that imperialism is becoming increasingly aggressive. Although it is true that Western imperialism faces new unprecedented challenges in the form of emerging multipolarity in world affairs, it however still remains a threat to world peace as ever. The fears posed by Western powers are the reason why the vast majority of global population is unable to choose paths of living of their own choice. The responsibility to provide counterbalance today to the Western powers majorly falls on the shoulders of Russia and China in the same way it did during most of the twentieth century.

Like the Soviet Union during the Cold War era, Russia today is able to provide a counterbalance to the U.S. in military terms. Despite very close relations with China, Russia is the main proponent of multipolarity in world affairs. Russia has acted very forcefully and decisively against Western designs in many places, such as Syria. There are many countries, such as Iran, and Venezuela, who are victims of U.S. aggression in the forms of economic sanctions and even threat of direct military action. These countries invariably turn to Russia for support not only at the United Nations Security Council but also in the forms of direct material assistance.

It is true that by no stretch of imagination, Russia can be called a socialist country today. But on the other hand, no one can deny the fact that all the strength the Russian state is able to display today on the international stage, has its genesis in its socialist past.


S. K. Dey Chair Professor, Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhia few months in France, he settled in London with his family. In London, Marx was provided financial help by Friedrich Engels, his collaborator for his entire political career, that made it possible for Marx to do research and write. Marx died on March 14, 1883, in London.

Marx authored many books (several with Engels) on diverse subjects of dialectics, material conception of history, class conflict, labour theory of value, surplus value, exploitation and alienation. His most influential works are The Communist Manifesto and Das Kapital. Marx was able to write and publish only the first volume of Das Kapital. Based on Marx’s copious notes, the second and third volumes were edited by Engels after Marx’s death. The main thrust of Das Kapital is to reveal the economic patterns underpinning the capitalist mode of production. The Communist Manifesto, written in 1848, provides an analysis of the internal conflicts of capitalism, focusing on the class-struggle between labour and capital. The Manifesto has become one of the most important documents influencing revolutionary movements world over.  

Marx’s one famous quote reflects his critique of his contemporary thinkers: “Philosophers have only interpreted the world in various ways. The point, however, is to change it.” Classical political economists such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo provided a historical understanding of the decline of feudalism and the emergence of bourgeoise during the period of industrial revolution in Europe. But for most of the economists in the classical political economy tradition, history stopped once the transition towards capitalism was accomplished. For Marx, even capitalism was a transitory phenomenon.

Marx contended that capitalism was prone to systemic crises and internal conflict between the bourgeoise and the proletariat. According to him, these contradictions within the system would ultimately lead to breakdown of the capitalist system and replacement of capitalism by a higher economic mode of production called socialism. A very distinctive aspect of the Marxist theory is that in addition to the examination of the existing capitalist system as such, it provides tools to understand the dynamic and historical process of the transformation of the capitalistic mode of production.

Coming to the recent times, there are various approaches to global political economy which elucidate the contemporary challenges posed by global capitalism. These approaches range from liberal mainstream approaches to Marxist approaches. The mainstream approaches have a serious drawback because of their ahistorical approach as they take the capitalist system as given and do not consider the global economic problems as an outcome of the accumulation logic of capitalism. The conventional wisdom that has been developed by the neoliberal politicians and intellectuals of the Global North about the advantages of neoliberal policies came under severe criticism after the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008. The ideology of neoliberalism posits that the only hope for prosperity for the people of the Global South lies in opening all the markets (and even the social and cultural spaces that have traditionally not been part of the market) for capital, domestic as well as foreign. The deregulation of capital in the name of free market has given birth to multiple threats in developed as well as developing countries that have not been the subject matter of mainstream economics. The failure of neoliberal capitalism and the growing economic and power imbalances in the world economy suggest that it is time for Marxist scholars to build a consensus and rethink political economy of global capitalism by paying adequate attention to new existential crises – the environmental crisis, the growing threat of nuclear war, and the threats from new dangerous technologies.

The influence of Marx’s ideas, already popular in parts of Europe in his life time, became a global force to be reckoned with by the victory of Bolsheviks in the 1917 Russian Revolution. The Russian Revolution was the first revolution in the world that established a socialist state in a country. The 1917 Revolution gave a huge impetus and encouragement to anti-colonial movements across Asia, Africa and Latin America. It gave hope to millions of people engaged in national liberation struggles across the globe that it was possible to score victory against the capitalist imperialist forces and to establish a social system in their societies based on the principles of freedom, equality and justice.

The collapse of socialism in Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the doctrinal changes in China after Mao and revival of capitalism in many other erstwhile socialist countries clearly point to the fact that linear progression towards socialism has not proven to be possible. The Communist Party of China (CPC) makes abundant use of Marxist phraseology. The CPC’s official ideology – Socialism with Chinese characteristics – is claimed to be based on the Marxian philosophical concept of ‘dialectical materialism’. It, however, needs to be understood here that ‘class struggle’ is the essence of Marxian politics. The socialist rhetoric used by the communist leadership, however, does not point to any class struggle being waged in the Chinese society. In case of Russia, even this debate – capitalism vs socialism – does not exist. All this, however, does not automatically lead to the conclusion that socialist experiments in many countries have all been worthless and without any positive contribution.

The most significant contribution made by Soviet Union to world history is that it saved the world from Hitler. During World War II, Soviet Union suffered the most destruction and casualties at the hand of the Nazi war machine. The Soviet Red Army played the most important role in the defeat of Germany. Although in the public memory it may not be acknowledged now in the West, the fact remains that the Soviets played the most crucial role in ending the menace of fascism in Europe.

For about four decades during the Cold War era, Soviet Union was able to provide a counterbalance to the U.S. and other Western powers. Just four years after the American bomb, Soviet Union succeeded in in producing its own nuclear weapon. This fast catching up in the area of mass destruction technology was the primary reason why America was not able to use nuclear weapons in its wars in Korea, Vietnam and other places during the Cold War period. Even after the collapse of Soviet Union and despite the devastating experience of the nineties, Russia – with a much smaller population base compared to the U.S. and Europe – continues even today to match the military might of the U.S. With seven decades long continuity in maintaining military balance with the West, Soviet Union’s (and now Russia’s) historic role in preventing the Third World War so far should be considered nothing but phenomenal.

Socialist planning played a very important role in the economic and political history of many countries during the last century. Detailed theoretical and practical constructs of socialist planning were first designed and developed and put in practice in Soviet Union during 1920s and 1930s. These ideas spread not only to socialist countries in Eastern Europe and China where there were repeated attempts to replicate them but also influenced economic institutions and economic policies in countries following capitalist path or mixed economy models (such as the U.S., Japan, France and India).

It is true that most countries who experimented with these ideas have now abandoned them. But the developing crisis of capitalism in many parts of the world and the environmental crisis affecting the whole world may create conditions that necessitate the adoption of socialist planning ideas.

The phase of unipolarity has ended and a new world order characterised as multipolar is emerging. It represents a fundamental break from the last several centuries’ long history of European domination. In the global transformation that is underway, the role of China has been the most crucial. China’s rise in recent years as a major power is the main causal factor behind the global transformation towards multipolarity. A multipolar world provides some space for independent action to other nation states. And this is true even for major powers such as India and Turkey.

The most significant aspect of the geopolitical reality today is that imperialism is becoming increasingly aggressive. Although it is true that Western imperialism faces new unprecedented challenges in the form of emerging multipolarity in world affairs, it however still remains a threat to world peace as ever. The fears posed by Western powers are the reason why the vast majority of global population is unable to choose paths of living of their own choice. The responsibility to provide counterbalance today to the Western powers majorly falls on the shoulders of Russia and China in the same way it did during most of the twentieth century.

Like the Soviet Union during the Cold War era, Russia today is able to provide a counterbalance to the U.S. in military terms. Despite very close relations with China, Russia is the main proponent of multipolarity in world affairs. Russia has acted very forcefully and decisively against Western designs in many places, such as Syria. There are many countries, such as Iran, and Venezuela, who are victims of U.S. aggression in the forms of economic sanctions and even threat of direct military action. These countries invariably turn to Russia for support not only at the United Nations Security Council but also in the forms of direct material assistance.

It is true that by no stretch of imagination, Russia can be called a socialist country today. But on the other hand, no one can deny the fact that all the strength the Russian state is able to display today on the international stage, has its genesis in its socialist past.

 

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Thursday 5 November 2020

ANNA KARENINA: A Tolstoy's Story!

Anna Karenina

Recently, I watched yet another movie Anna Karenina 2012, a remake of 1985 directed and adopted by Joe Wright from Leo Tolstoy's 1877 novel with the same name based on historical romantic drama movies. Contrasting with the romantic happy ending in 'An Affair to Remember', this film depicts the tragedy of an extramarital affair of Anna Karenina, a Russian aristocrat and socialite and wife of a senior statesman Alexei Karenin and her affair with the affluent cavalry officer Count Vronsky. Keira Knightley stars in the lead role as Karenina, gave a stunning performance which makes her third collaboration with Joe Wright following both 'Pride & Prejudice' (2005)' and 'Atonement (2007)'. Jude Law and Aaron Taylor-Johnson appear as Karenin and Vronsky, respectively. Matthew Macfadyen, Kelly Macdonald, Domhnall Gleeson, and Alicia Vikander appear in key supporting roles.

Produced by Working Title Films in association with StudioCanal, the film premiered at the 2012 Toronto Film Festival. It was released on 7 September 2012 in the United Kingdom and on 9 November 2012 in the United States. Anna Karenina earned a worldwide gross of approximately $69 million, mostly from its international run. It earned an approval rating of 63% from review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes. Critics praised the cast, but commented on and criticized the heavily stylized adaptation, and were less enthusiastic with Wright's preference for style over substance and his idea of setting most of the action on a theatre stage.
It earned four nominations at the 85th Academy Awards and six nominations at the 66th British Academy Film Awards, winning Jacqueline Durran both prizes for Best Costume Design. In addition, Anna Karenina garnered six nominations at the 17th Satellite Awards, including a Best Actress nod for Knightley and Best Adapted Screenplay for Stoppard.

Romantic Love Story: An Affair to Remember (1957)

 An Affair to Remember (1957) Directed by Carey Grant.

A couple fell in love on board in a cruise-ship agreed to meet after six months at the Empire State Building - but will it happen? Bollywood cast Amir Khan and Manisha Koirala in Mann 1999 based on the above movie. Although Amir Khan performed very well they lost the soul which one could see in A affair to remember!!!
On a long haul flight from I had an opportunity to watch this movie while fellow Indians were busy watching Bollywood commercial movies with everything mixed including the music and dances.
This film has to be probably one of the best romantic movies I've ever watched, even above the classic like Sound of Music or even Gone With The Wind. I was intrigued by this movie how it would end, unlike the Indian movies in which the plot and outcome are well known happy ending. Needless to say, with the whole "shipboard romance" aspect of it, and the promise to meet again in six months at top of the Empire State Building of all places, I quickly became glued to it. The scene on the French Riviera with Nickie's grandmother playing the piano, oh God is it beautiful! Cary Grant is so debonair and suave and Deborah Kerr is so ravishing and stunningly beautiful, that it always demands repeated viewing from me (at least three times a year). Seeing this film always makes me wonder if something like the kind of relationship that Nickie had with Terry in the movie would really be a possibility in real life. Would and could someone actually leave the person they were engaged to marry a complete and total stranger that they just met days ago? I'd like to think that it could, as I always thought love is spontaneous like music, but then mots people are nothing but hopelessly romantic. The final scene always tears my heart out, no matter how many times I've seen it, I'm always sobbing. Watching this movie around Valentine's Day (even if you are single) is always a treat. It allows our fantasies to take flight so that we may think that we are actually the one meeting our beloved atop the Empire State Building in a thunderstorm. Rating 5*

Tuesday 5 May 2020

TRIBUTE TO IRRFAN KHAN

Review of Hindi Medium - Movie for Irrfan Khan


I should begin at the very outset by clarifying that although Indian Cinema is not my field of expertise I occasionally chose to attempt a review Bollywood movies occasionally when putting to challenge, http://newsviews-raceclass.blogspot.com/2018/02/padmawati-v-banshali-2018.htmlhttp://newsviews-raceclass.blogspot.com/2018/02/pad-man-controversial-movie.html, http://newsviews-raceclass.blogspot.com/Hence, my views will be that of an amateur reviewer. 
I believe success could be measured in various ways but generally accepted ingredients are as follows: (i) solid work ethics, ii. Stamina, iii. Concentration, iv. Collegial temperament, v. an economic base, etc.  However, I must admit that there is a mark difference between a successful actor and a successful movie which should cater to the need of entertainment, collection at the box office.  No doubt, theatre and movies have played an important role in social transformation but its negative role can’t be underestimated in maintaining the status quo ante.  In fact, recent studies published in psychiatric journals have accepted clinical treatment is not enough to manage mental illness unless combined with nonclinical therapeutic and humanities treatment like classical music.
In the wake of a numerous tributes and obituaries around the world on the sad demise of infamous actor Irrfan Khan last night I was prompted to watch Hindi Medium which received a lot of attention and credited to him.  There is no harm in eulogising and exaggerating the achievement in obituaries of famous people, but there has to be a caveat to avoid personality cult for which the very intellectuals criticise others in history for a political reason to undermine their sacrifices and role.  In fact, I watched in one of the TV channels suggesting that only once 100 years an actor like Irrfan Kahn is born which leaves nothing for imagination if a legend, Dilip Kumar passes away.
I must admit while attempting in this review that I have seen only a few movies of Irrfan, namely; Piku, Pan Singh Tomar and Hindi Medium. Now I began with Hindi Medium it deals with a quite relevant national question on the basis of langue that initially cropped up in South India in the 1960s.  A number of people performed very well in the movie, but I will focus mainly on three main the character played by Irrfan Khan as Raj Batra, (a small businessman), Saba Quram as Mita (dominating wife) and Deepak Dobriyal as Shyam Prakash (as a poor neighbour). Although a lot has been said about the performance of Irrfan, but very little, if any, reference made to the other two actors even before or in the course of his obituary although many leftist friends and foes were not slow to cash him for their own good.
In terms of commercial success, a 14 crore small budget movie (peanuts in term of US $2.1 million). There are fantastic moments in the movie and sharply created scenes between the characters which prove to be amazing highlights in the movie.  In particular, Saba’ stunning look commented, “English is class”, and that Irrfan was stuck in Chandni Chowk when a Punjabi song was played in House warming party.  In a rat-race of getting up the middle-class ladder, Saba wanted him to move to a posh area near a public school (private school in India) so their daughter, Pia could overcome hang up of middle-class and acquire a ‘Rich look’ to keep up with the “Class”, they even hire a consultant to advise them.  One of such interesting scenes were when the consultant asked PIA’s parents to define the poverty although Irrfan said they have seen around them so didn’t need definition; she said that was not enough! Consultant defined it for them as “Sharing & Caring”, that was a Wow definition! made 322 crores (50 million) at the Box office, so it was a great success in terms of ‘100 Crore club’. As to its success in terms of other measures although Irrfan has been assessed in a politically correct manner some even described his speech at the school function as the Masterstroke it would appear to independent observers that a great injustice has been done to Saba Quram and Dobriyal who not only played extremely well but at times they overshadowed Irrfan given Saba’s limited experience as a TV presenter compared to Irrfan. The scriptwriter has done a superb job in writing dialogues for Saba Qurama and Deepak Dobriyal was superb in some scenes and left the audience
Once Raj and Mitu failed to secure a place for Pia by presenting her being “English Class”, father conceived some other ideas of climbing down to the status of poor class to take advantage of RTE quota, so they moved to a poor area. Family neither being from ‘Rich’ or ‘Poor’ had difficulties in adjusting. Another god scene when Irrfan got a job in a biscuit factory but could not keep the pace with the work and Saba had to fight for scarce water and long lines at the ration shop. It is depicted very well in the movie and failings to keep up with poverty-ridden life; investigating journalist for fraudulent seekers of RTE quota makes an interesting comment, “Only they know the pain sleeping empty stomach”.         
Deepak Dobriyal played extremely well as a poor man and friend of the family moved in the neighbourhood. He does everything to help adjust them to poor life and beautifully defends them in front of the investigating journalist in disguise.  He even jumps before a car and hurt himself so that he could get some money from the car owner to pay Rs. 25,000 deposit for Irrfan’s daughter who finally got accepted in the grammar school, but actually poor Dobriyal’s son could not. Raj & Mita's conscious was hurting them so they decided to visit a poor children’s school and made an undisclosed donation like Birla building temples appeared a good satire.  Dobriyal puts his son in a poor children’s school where he learnt from school Head Master that someone donated a lot of money to improvise the school. Dobriyal decided to go to Donor’s house and was shocked to discover Irrfan’s there who pretended to be servant, the act didn’t go well and was exposed by the housekeeper who stunned by her expression when said, “Ye Sahib ha” (he is the boss). Guilty conscience exasperated Irrfan expressed while telling his wife, “we ate his child’ seat” that lacked emotion.   The second half gets a bit over-dramatic and the plot becomes quite obvious with ample degrees of freedom. Climax speech of Irrfan in Grammar’s school’s function stretched too far and stumbles near the end with overly sentimental, but sent the core message exposing the shortcomings and loopholes of the educational system.  Of course, the film is one of the best Bollywood films of its time.
There was a bit disappointment Irrfan could not keep ignorance of a petty shopkeeper’s outfit throughout the movie contrasting with Abhishek Bachhan as a Marwadi Baniya in GURU let alone matching with Amitabh Bachhan in Namak Halal (1982), “English a very funny language…I can talk English, I can walk English…” or Amol Paleker in Golma (1979).   
As to Irrfan's glamourisation by left and progressives due to his young role as Lenin in an act I had an opportunity to watch Shekher Gupta's interview with Irrfan Khan done a few years ago on NDTV. I was a bit disappointed by his response to his question 1. You asserted that you could never become a character which is given to you? His response was, "You are what you...", 2. How do you place with the changes or planned yourself a few years ahead and his telling response was, "I go with the flow". I don't believe this is what he really means but this often happens when you chose to answer in English which is not your first language. Perhaps, he meant, "I am spontaneous". However, answer to the first question does not appear convincing as if as an actor you can't get into the character would mean you have not done justice to the role. One has to be someone else when playing the character, of course, you have to come back to yourself once the role is over. Dilip Kumar sahib Wahida Rehman had such ability and to some extent Amitabh Bachhan too. Sharukh Kahn is always in the Character and never find any difference between what they actually are and what character they play on the screen.
I part with the review and leave it up to the readers if the Hindi Medium passed the test set at the outset of the review!!!

Prof S Deman
London

Tuesday 5 March 2019

Controversy surrounding Bollywood Movie "Haider"

HAIDER - A REVIEWPending
HAIDER - A LAYMAN'S REVIEW

In the light of a protracted debate for and against the “Haider” without seeing it provoked me to watch the movie along with my wife in the Cine World O2 Cinema in Greenwich Millennium Dome although I generally do not watch them as most are being sexist, violent, and long. Hence trash!
Frankly speaking, I liked the movie and I did not find even an iota amount of material either in the form or essence that would give rise to cause of concern to an independent reasonable observer in the right mind let alone a champion of ‘freedom of expression’.. In my view, the purpose of Cinema is many splendorous things, but I am going to identify the ones which I think are relevant, namely, (i) depicting a real social or otherwise, better known as what it is, as positivist view?, (ii) What it ought
to be that is normative approach, (iii) comedy for entertainment, (iv) Love Triangle, (v) Horror or Thriller, and (iv) a fiction science or otherwise. Unfortunately, Cinema in India has always been trying to combine all of them in one. And ultimately, the success of a movie is measured in terms of how it hits on the post box, i.e., the value of money rather than it real quality.
‘Haider’ story is not unusually shocking in a Police State, like in Northern Ireland under the umbrella of the United Kingdom, a home for freedom fighters and criminals where I have witnessed my worst nightmare. I note the following interesting points in the movie:
1. Shaheed Kapoor who played Haider overly protected by his father Hilal Meer, a doctor, he was disappointed, so he sent his son out of Kashmir to study so that he could stay out of troubles. Though Hilal Meer had no link with the terrorists/freedom fighters whichever side you are you could call by that name. Meer ends up in a situation where he had undertaken to perform an operation to remove his appendix of a Commander of insurgents in his home rather than in hospital. Quite understandably had been sent to the hospital he would have arrested and killed! Haider’s mother Ghazala Meer (Tabu) asked her husband which side he was and his telling response was, “Life”.
2. Arshia, a daughter of Parvez Lone, a Police Officer, a teen friend in love with Haider.
Though, Haider was away for studies he kept on sending his poem to Arshia that created a strong bond between them. Given stereotype generalizations about Muslim Director allowed Arshia and Haider to kiss to break the ice to overcome the accusation of Love Jihad!
3. Haider tells Arshia a story that a boy killed his parents and court convicted him but
the boy asked for leniency in sentencing. Judge asked the accused how could expect leniency for such a heinous crime and the boy told that after all he is now an orphan! When Arshia asked Haider try to explain that it is called “Chutzpah” (Hebrew) and his friend said it sounds like IASFA, i.e., Indian Army Special Forces Act., which was quite hilarious.
4. Hussain Meer, an old wise (Grand Dad) & pragmatic man spells out his views on a
very complex and sensitive issue Kashmir by telling that one can’t achieve the goal of freedom by violence, “Gandhi brought Freedom by Lathi (stick) rather than with the guns”. And “Revenge begets revenge and unless we liberate ourselves from revenge we cannot achieve freedom”.
5. Ghazala Meer appears very critical of her husband for his soft corner for insurgents. In the base of any attention, she enters into an extra-marital affair with her husband’s younger brother. In fact, as the story unfolds Dr Hilal Meer’s brother had a sinister plan to rid his brother to have Ghazala for good. It appears she was a co-conspirator. Haider is unwilling to accept his father’s criticism and told his mother, “You should also look at others’ perspective”.
6. Brigadier T.S Murthy responsible for fighting insurgents and their commander, Khurram
Meer and tells the public not to support them that they belong to the same Kabila who attacked India in 1948 and killed children and raped women and it was the Indian army which saved them.
7. Ghazala passes a message to Hilal Meer’s brother about the operation carried out by him
who in turn conveyed to Brgd. Khurram Meer who attacked the house and killed insurgents’ Commander. Dr Meer was taken to interrogation/Torture camps and no one knew about his whereabouts.
8. "Haider" is a poet who returns to Kashmir unaware of his father’s disappearance at the
height of the insurgency to find his disappeared father and ends up sucked into the politics of the state during this search. Arshia helps him find his father. Irfan’s guest entry was superb who played as Roohdaar, a suspected insurgent and co-cellmate with Dr Meer managed to convey a message to Haider. Haider manages to meet Roohdaar and insurgents’ Commander Zahoor and passes on message him as to what his father wanted him to do, i.e., “Revenge begets revenge”.
9. At the meeting with Roohdaar & Zahoor, it was revealed that Haider’s uncle was not only engaged in adultery with his mother but in collusion with Army he also organised a parallel terrorist group led by Ikhaf Latik. Not so surprising for those who have read CIA’s manual of Nicaragua as it is typical tactics CIA employed to kill Che Guevara in Bolivia
10. Arshia having missed Haider for a few days finally got to see him and there one see
some shades of dialogue from Helmet, “to be and not to be”, being a young confused man Haider is a big dilemma was whether to believe his uncle who got elected in Parliament to just find his father or to believe a co-prisoner Roohdaar who not only conveyed his father message but also told him whether his father was buried, and emotionally as he appeared, wish to believe his uncle to find his father alive, an impossibility, and being in love with as beautiful Arshia, he sees question even in answers how his uncle and mother cahoot in his
father’s murder. Director added a sense of humour when made Arshia say, Walk as walked, suck as a sucker, loved as loved and F’ck as F’ckked in local
accent. And Roohdaar's humming of lines from Iqbal..."...Dekhange", was amazing!
11. Arshia just out of love for father, as most children do, end up telling her father as
whereabouts of Haider and felt betrayed as her father emotionally blackmailed saying he would ensure the safety of Haider as his life was in jeopardy. Arshia once again in a colloquial tells Haider her father used her. Exasperated Betrayed Haider kills herself.
12. The news that Dr Meer is dead cleared the way for Ghazala Meer and Haider’s uncle
to get married for which they were waiting for a long time. This convinced Haider of conspiracy to murder his father who went crazy. Ghazala tried to talk into Haider to convince him of no conspiracy. Arshia’s father desperately looking for Haider found him with Ghazala at their ruined homes. Before Parvez could soot Haider he shot him making Arshia upset.
13. Finally, the moment of truth comes when Haider escaped assassination and Roohdaar planned his escape across the border, he was surrounded by uncle’s terrorist gang. In combat insurgents; loyalists got killed and Haider also got shot which left with little option for him. Things take a twist when Ghazala arrived at the scene of combat and tried to persuade her new husband to forgive Haider. Haider refused to give in, so exasperated
Ghazal walks passed by her husband taking off her overcoat revealing raped bombs on
her chest making everyone terrified. She blew herself killing ever one and severely injured her husband.
14. It crossed Haider’s mind to take revenge to fulfil his father’s last wish to shoot him in both eyes. Melodrama reached its highest climax where everyone thought expect me that he would shoot the bastard. Haider was reminded of old wise man’s words,” “Revenge begets revenge and unless we liberate ourselves from revenge we cannot achieve
freedom” he could not shoot.
Therefore I failed o understand what is the complaint here against Vishal Bhardwaj? Rather than the Hindus unnecessary and unreasonable outcry about demeaning the Army by trading off national interests, I would not have surprised if the protest was forthcoming form the radical Muslims as Muslim family has been portrayed of adultery, betrayal,
collaborators and kissing! It appears others are more tolerant than some of us on this Facebook and in the media. In my opinion, although I am unsure how much Haider is a departure from other Massala movies and how much he got Hamlet into it, Vishal has done a superb job in all respect. And every one performed very well. I would rate the movie at 8 on the scale of 1-10.